New Delhi, October 13, 2025 – The India Meteorological Department (IMD) today confirmed the near-complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from northern and central India, marking the end of a robust season that delivered 107.9% of the long-period average rainfall nationwide. This timely retreat brings relief to farmers in key agricultural heartlands like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where clear skies and dry conditions are now facilitating critical harvesting activities for crops such as rice, wheat, and pulses. However, as the monsoon bids farewell to the north, southern states including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh are gearing up for a shift in weather patterns, with forecasts predicting intensified showers and the early onset of the northeast monsoon, potentially leading to heavy downpours until at least October 18.

The 2025 southwest monsoon season, which officially began on May 31 over Kerala, has been characterized by above-normal precipitation overall, totaling approximately 937 mm against the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm. Regional variations were stark: Northwest India recorded a surplus of 127% of LPA, benefiting rabi crop preparations, while East and Northeast India experienced deficits, with only 80% of LPA—the second-lowest since 1901 in those areas. Despite challenges like delayed withdrawal earlier in the month due to Cyclone Shakti and persistent low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal, the IMD’s latest bulletin on October 12 indicated favorable conditions for the monsoon’s exit from remaining parts of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and portions of West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana within the next 24 hours.

In Uttar Pradesh, a state that contributes over 20% of India’s food grain production, the withdrawal couldn’t come soon enough. “The rains have been generous this year, but the past week’s dry spell is a godsend for our paddy fields,” said Rajendra Singh, a farmer from Lucknow’s outskirts, as combines rolled through golden fields under a crisp autumn sun. Similar sentiments echoed in Bihar, where the monsoon surplus helped mitigate last year’s drought impacts but had raised flood concerns in low-lying areas. With minimum temperatures hovering between 21-22°C and no rain in sight until mid-November, harvesting operations are in full swing, expected to boost procurement at government centers and stabilize market prices ahead of the winter sowing season.

Contrastingly, the south is on high alert. The IMD has issued warnings for heavy to very heavy rainfall over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh, driven by an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the east-central Bay of Bengal. This system is poised to evolve into a low-pressure area, triggering the northeast monsoon’s onset—a seasonal wind reversal that typically brings 60-70% of Tamil Nadu’s annual rainfall. “We expect isolated extremely heavy falls (>20 cm) in isolated pockets until October 18, with risks of flash floods and landslides in hilly terrains,” stated Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD Director General, during a press briefing in New Delhi.

In Kerala, already reeling from pre-monsoon landslides earlier this year, coastal districts like Thiruvananthapuram and Kochi are preparing evacuation drills and reinforcing river embankments. Tamil Nadu’s capital Chennai, which saw record urban flooding in 2023, has activated its early warning system, urging residents to avoid low-lying areas. Andhra Pradesh’s government has announced school holidays in northern districts and deployed NDRF teams in Vijayawada. The northeast monsoon’s vigor is projected to persist through October-December, with seasonal rainfall over the South Peninsula likely exceeding 112% of LPA, potentially aiding reservoir replenishment but heightening vulnerability to waterlogging in urban centers.

Meteorologists attribute this year’s monsoon dynamics to a weakening La Niña influence and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, which fostered the surplus in the north while delaying the retreat. Looking ahead, the IMD’s extended range forecast for October 9-22 predicts above-normal rainfall for most of India, except isolated pockets in the northwest and extreme south, with nighttime temperatures remaining warmer than usual. As the nation transitions from the “barish ka mausam” (rainy season) to cooler days, experts emphasize the need for adaptive farming practices and robust disaster preparedness to harness the benefits while mitigating risks.

This withdrawal not only closes a chapter on one of India’s wettest monsoons in recent decades but also underscores the evolving impacts of climate variability. For farmers in the north, it’s a harvest of hope; for the south, a call to resilience amid the rains’ relentless rhythm.

World Report Press is an independent global news outlet committed to in-depth coverage of climate, agriculture, and environmental stories. For more on IMD forecasts, visit mausam.imd.gov.in.