March 2026 Auto Sales: 1.37M Units, EV Share Drops

Published: March 30, 2026 By World Report Press Auto Desk (Data sourced from JD Power-GlobalData, Cox Automotive, and cross-verified industry reports)

The United States new vehicle market is projected to record its strongest monthly performance of 2026 in March, with nationwide total sales expected to hit approximately 1.37 million units. While this represents a healthy rebound from February, year-over-year figures show a double-digit decline, primarily due to the absence of last year’s pre-tariff buying surge.

Nationwide US New Vehicle Sales Forecast – March 2026

According to the latest joint forecast released by JD Power and GlobalData:

• Total new-vehicle sales (retail + fleet/non-retail): 1,372,877 units
  • Down 11.4% year-over-year (YoY) from March 2025
  • Up 11.9% month-over-month (MoM) from February 2026
• Retail sales only: 1,120,601 units
  • Down 13.3% YoY
  • Up 14.3% MoM
• Selling days: 25 (one fewer than March 2025). Without selling-day adjustment, the YoY decline widens to 14.8% for total sales and 16.6% for retail.
• Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR): 16.0 million units (total), down significantly from the 18.1 million SAAR in March 2025 but up from February 2026.

Cox Automotive aligns closely, forecasting March volume at around 1.37 million units with a SAAR of approximately 15.8 million, describing the pace as “essentially unchanged” from recent months despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions in the Middle East that could affect fuel prices and consumer sentiment.

March traditionally serves as a strong spring sales month, making it the best-performing period of Q1 2026 in raw volume.

Q1 2026 Nationwide Sales Overview

• Q1 total new-vehicle sales: Projected at 3,655,500 units, down approximately 7.4% YoY when adjusted for selling days.
• The first quarter reflects a broader market reset following the 2025 tariff-related demand pull-forward.

Full-Year 2026 Outlook (Country-Wide): Both Cox Automotive and other major forecasters project total US light-vehicle sales for 2026 at around 15.8 million units — a modest 2.6% decline from 2025 levels. This outlook assumes current economic pressures and geopolitical risks do not escalate sharply.

EV and Electrified Vehicle Performance Nationwide

Electric vehicle demand continues to face challenges in early 2026:

• Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs): Expected to represent 6.9% of new-vehicle retail sales in March (down 1.9 percentage points YoY).
• Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs): Approximately 1.4% (down 1.0 percentage point YoY).
• Combined EV + PHEV share: Roughly 8.3%.
• Non-plug-in Hybrids (HEVs): Gaining strong traction at 15.5% of retail sales (up 2.2 percentage points YoY), highlighting a clear consumer shift toward more affordable electrified options.

Q1 Context: New EV sales across the first three months of 2026 totaled roughly 212,600 units, marking a sharp 28% drop from Q1 2025, largely due to the expiration of federal EV tax credits in late 2025.

In contrast, the used EV segment shows resilience, with Q1 sales up 12% YoY and pricing now competitive with gasoline vehicles.

Key Drivers Shaping Nationwide Sales

• Affordability and Pricing: High average transaction prices and interest rates continue to pressure buyers, pushing many toward hybrids and used vehicles.
• Policy Changes: The end of federal EV incentives has disproportionately affected mass-market battery electric models.
• Brand Performance Trends: Early Q1 indicators suggest Toyota gaining market share, while General Motors, Ford, and some imports face varying degrees of softness. Legacy automakers are leaning more heavily on hybrids as a bridge technology.
• Geopolitical and Economic Factors: Concerns over Middle East conflicts and potential oil price volatility add uncertainty, though current forecasts assume these issues remain contained.